The one trend to rule them all

Like many of us, tracking major trends in the following areas: mobile, workforce of one, micro-tasks, big data, automation, text-image, synchronous-asynchronous, networking, augmented reality, squeezed middle.

But there is a meta-trend that governs all these: granularisation. 

Non-linear systems self-organise so as to dissipate energy efficiently. But energy dissipation is never perfect in a structured system – so as the residual energy builds up (or the required rate of dissipation increases) the complex structures break down, transitioning through a chaotic period before reaching a new metastable state.

Characteristically, this new state will have smaller ‘cells’, re-expressing the structure at a lower state of granularity.

What is bothering me is what moves upwards, as this transition takes place.

So, for example, it has become ridiculous to talk of ‘jobs’, ‘roles’, ‘capabilities’ as it is clear these are being broken down into rapidly shifting sets of micro-tasks (since jobs change rapidly, people change jobs etc.) which in turn become the new meaningful unit of analysis.

Similarly, organisations and hierarchies – indeed old notions of authority – are ‘softening and flattening’ as we transition away from the 'organisation' as the organising principle towards the project. Small data made big, the internet of everything - these are ever smaller units of measure, ever smaller nodes.

The connectivity of nodes in the structure is what brings about these possible changes, which are visible in a fractal-like fashion across levels of organisation (strata): for example the tendency of individuals to switch from long, essay-form, processing through shorter (‘twitter’) processing through to flattened image processing (‘instagram’). In this way, expertise becomes a function of the system rather than that of individuals. No individual processes the correct pricing strategy, instead it is a function of networked nodes.

Perhaps an example: I sit on the train with my book. But I choose not to read my book as it is so much easier to browse images and videos on Facebook or Instagram. In such ways you are being re-purposed.

But this is what interests me – the movement upwards of expertise, or learning - indeed of cognition itself. The ascent of these things even as the granularity of the system grows; that this is how ascent happens: for example the progression from a time of ‘renaissance men’ - localised ‘large’ granules - to a complex nodal structure where the processing of each cell – each neuron – is simple.

And in all the chaotic confusion, this irreducible terrible presentiment and a desire to take shelter.